Showing posts with label intervention. Show all posts
Showing posts with label intervention. Show all posts

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Japan PM warns of more action vs yen

TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Tokyo was ready to act again if the yen moved sharply, keeping traders on guard against further intervention as expectations of US monetary easing weighed on the dollar.

Japan intervened in the currency market last week by selling yen for the first time in more than six years as its surge to a 15-year high against the dollar threatened to derail Japan's slowing economy and worsen deflation.

In an interview with the Financial Times published on Wednesday, Kan said currency intervention would be unavoidable if there were a drastic change in the yen exchange rate.

The comments coincided with the dollar's drop below 85 yen to its weakest level since last week's intervention, after the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to stimulate the US economy more.

Traders said the yen was still below levels that would trigger another intervention, but more yen selling could not be ruled out.

"I don't think markets are bracing for imminent intervention with the dollar still above 84.00 yen. But if the dollar falls further to test 82 yen, markets will focus on whether authorities will step in again to defend that level," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking.

"Japanese authorities will intervene in the event of sharp market moves, regardless of whether Kan will be away from Japan or not."

Kan, who is traveling to New York this week for a U.N. General Assembly meeting, said there was an agreement among G20 nations that overly rapid currency movements were undesirable, and that he would seek to defend Japan's action.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa declared further support for the country's economy, saying in a newspaper interview the central bank would provide ample funds to the market.

That would include liquidity supplied through intervention, Shirakawa said, suggesting that the BOJ would continue to refrain from draining funds released into the market when authorities sell the yen.

The BOJ also stands ready to ease policy further at its next rate review on October 4-5, although there is a debate within the bank on what exactly it should do next with its policy options limited, sources familiar with the bank's thinking said.

BOJ's options

Those options include increasing government bond purchases, buying private sector assets or expanding a cheap fund-supply scheme targeting growth industries, sources say.

Shirakawa told the Yomiuri newspaper that greater uncertainty about the global economy meant increased risks to Japan's recovery, a warning echoed by BOJ board member Ryuzo Miyao.

Miyao, who joined the board in March, told business leaders in western Japan that a possible extended spell of sluggish US economic growth could force the BOJ to alter its forecast of a sustained moderate recovery in Japan's economy.

He also said the BOJ was not ruling out any policy option, including increasing its government bond buying from the current 21.6 trillion yen per year.

With its hands tied by public debt double the size of Japan's $5 trillion economy, the government has mainly counted on the BOJ to come up with ways of revving up the sagging economy.

But Kan said Tokyo planned a comprehensive package of measures that would stimulate domestic demand and help to weaken the currency.

While he did not elaborate on measures to boost domestic demand, he said one option was to use the yen's strength to invest in natural resources overseas.

"I think it is necessary to combine economic policy and monetary policies that will be conducive to ... slightly lower than the current level," he added.

Kan has instructed his cabinet to compile an extra budget for the current fiscal year to March, although the size of spending will likely be too small to significantly boost the economy.

Unsterilized interventions are a departure from the usual central bank practice of absorbing the extra funds through issuance of government bills, effectively making intervention a part of a monetary loosening mix.

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Friday, November 19, 2010

Japan ready to weaken yen again despite criticism

TOKYO - Japan's finance minister on Friday repeated his threat to intervene in currency markets if necessary to weaken the yen, illustrating government resolve in the face of overseas criticism.

"As we have been saying, our basic stance is that we will take decisive steps, including intervention, if necessary, and I'd like to maintain this stance," Yoshihiko Noda said at a news conference after a cabinet meeting.

Noda was retained in Prime Minister Naoto Kan's cabinet reshuffle Friday, following the premier's victory in a bruising leadership challenge this week from Ichiro Ozawa, his pro-intervention rival.

Kan likewise suggested Japan would take further action if necessary, saying at a press conference: "We cannot take our guard down when it comes to the economy."

"So far, the interventions have worked to a certain degree," he added.

Japan on Wednesday carried out its first global currency market intervention since 2004 in an estimated two trillion yen (US$23 billion) move to help safeguard an export-driven recovery.

The decision surprised markets as Kan sought to silence those accusing him of inaction and win over supporters of Ozawa.

A strong yen puts Japanese exporters at a disadvantage because it erodes their repatriated earnings and competitiveness, in turn threatening the nation's fragile growth.

However, any repeat foray into the markets if the yen resumes upward moves may provoke ire from Japan's Group of Seven partners, after its intervention Wednesday was rounded on in Washington and Brussels.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday hit out at such action on currency markets, saying his eurozone partners "don't like unilateral intervention".

Juncker, who heads the Eurogroup of finance ministers who manage the shared currency, spoke out as US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner bluntly warned China it had to let the yuan rise against the dollar to end trade distortions.

Earlier, US Democratic Representative Sander Levin, who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee which has power over taxes and trade policy, called Japan's policy "predatory" and "deeply disturbing".

With a large trade and current account surplus, Japan has a relatively weak case to lower its currency to boost exports, some analysts argue.

And while the yen recently hit 15-year highs on nominal terms, it is still below its 1995 peak when adjusted for price changes and compared with a basket of currencies used by Japan's largest trading partners, say analysts.

Noda said he is "checking" the overseas response to the intervention, adding, "I understand there are various opinions."

The yen was at 85.72 Friday, nearly three yen off a 15-year high of 82.86 reached before the intervention.

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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Japan PM says ready to step into forex markets again

TOKYO - Japan's prime minister signaled on Thursday authorities would keep intervening to curb yen strength as sagging manufacturing confidence underscored the threat the currency poses to the fragile economic recovery.

A Reuters monthly poll that tracks the Bank of Japan tankan report showed manufacturing confidence dropped in September from August for the first time in nearly a year as firms struggled with the yen's rise to a 15-year high against the dollar.

Responding to the concerns about the yen's rise, authorities intervened in markets on Wednesday for the first time in six years to knock the currency lower by selling an estimated 2 trillion yen.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who fended off a leadership challenge from a ruling party powerbroker this week, pointed on Thursday to more yen selling if needed.

"If rapid fluctuations in the yen harm Japanese firms' appetite for investing at home and push them to shift their factories overseas, that could further worsen job conditions and affect to overcome deflation," Kan said.

"I will take decisive steps if needed from now on as well," he told a business group.

Some currency traders see the likelihood of another round of intervention would increase if the dollar slipped back below 85 yen. Its now trading at 85.4 yen, having strengthened from around 83 yen before the intervention.

Pressure on BOJ?

Kan, struggling to unify his party and facing a divided parliament, wants to be proactive in tackling the yen after winning the ruling party leadership race on Tuesday.

He is expected to reshuffle his cabinet soon but retain Yoshihiko Noda as finance minister.

"He is trying to send a message of his party's solidarity. He is showing the strong intention of Japan to take decisive action through intervention," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking.

A panel of junior lawmakers in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan urged the Bank of Japan to call an extraordinary meeting to ease policy and so support the government's efforts.

Central bank sources have said the authority has no plan to call an emergency meeting but it is ready to act at its next scheduled meeting in early October if the economic recovery remains under threat.

The panel suggested the BOJ increases its buying of Japanese government bonds, although BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa reiterated his opposition to the idea.

"We hardly observe the fact that massive expansions in central bank balance sheets result in an increase in inflation in advanced economies," Shirakawa said in a conference speech.

Shirakawa told a securities dealers' gathering later on Thursday that the BOJ would take timely action as needed and keep providing ample funds to money markets.

In addition, sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday the BOJ will not drain the money flowing into the economy as a result of the selling, indicating it plans to use the sold yen as a monetary tool to boost liquidity in the economy.

Yen threat to exports

The intervention pushed the dollar more than 3 percent higher on Wednesday, a big move for a currency.

Japan faced some international criticism for its solo intervention. Since most advanced economies are grappling with slow growth at home, making exports an economic imperative, Japan's move heightened concerns countries would launch a round of competitive devaluations to support their own exports.

US lawmaker Sander Levin, who chairs a congressional committee examining China's currency policy, blamed Beijing for Japan's "deeply disturbing" intervention.

But Kan faces domestic pressure for more action on the yen.

"The dollar has recovered to about 85 yen now after the government and Bank of Japan intervened yesterday, and we want them to continue taking strong action to reverse the yen's strength," Toshiyuki Shiga, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, told a news conference.

"A dollar of 85 or 90 yen is not a level at which job losses can be prevented in Japan," he added.

Japan's economic recovery from the global crisis has faltered with export growth slowing down. Signs the US recovery is also stuttering has added to Tokyo's concerns.

Underlining those concerns, the Reuters Tankan survey, which has a 95 percent correlation with the BOJ's closely watched quarterly tankan business sentiment survey, showed the manufacturers' sentiment index fell 5 points from August to plus 17, down for the first time since October 2009.

Still, the Reuters index has risen during the July-September quarter, suggesting the BOJ data due on out on September 29 will also show a rise.

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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Japan intervenes to weaken yen for 1st time in 6 years

yen
Foreign exchange broker stand in front of a television screen showing Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda speaking to the media in Tokyo September 15, 2010.
Photo: Reuters

TOKYO - Japan sold the yen in the market on Wednesday for the first time in six years, trying to stop the currency's relentless climb from hurting exporters and threatening a fragile economic recovery.

Fresh after a victory in party leadership contest, Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan appeared to be stepping up efforts to wrench the country out of deflation by targeting yen strength, which has weighed on stock prices and corporate profits.

Estimates vary on how much Japan has spent so far in its first intervention in the foreign exchange market since spending 35 trillion yen in 2003-2004. Dealers talk about 300-500 billion yen though some reports put it closer to 100 billion yen.

The US dollar extended its gains against the yen after an official at Japan's Ministry of Finance said intervention was not finished, climbing more than 2 percent on the day above 85 yen and nearly two yen above a 15-year low.

Wednesday's action pleased its target audience: major Japanese exporters.

"We applaud the move by the government and the Bank of Japan to correct the yen's strength." Japan's No. 2 automaker Honda Motor Co. said in a statement. Honda has penciled in the yen at 87 to the dollar in its financial estimates for the 2010/2011 business year.

The Bank of Japan will not drain the money flowing into the economy as a result of the yen selling, sources familiar with the matter said, indicating coordinated efforts with the government to support the economy.

The central bank may follow up with additional steps, such as buying more government debt, economists said.

Analysts doubt other countries would help Japan tamp down the yen since they also need weaker currencies to boost exports and growth. Intense pressure from Washington on China to let its currency strengthen also makes any attempts by major economies to weaken their currencies particularly sensitive.

Sympathy

Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda indicated that Tokyo acted alone, but said he was in contact with overseas authorities and analysts said Japan would probably be spared international criticism.

"Japan will be seen as a special case. Obviously its economy has been in significant trouble for a while, stocks have been depressed for some time, export performance relative to the Asian peer group has been very weak," Simon Flint, global head of foreign exchange research with Nomura in Singapore, said.

"To some degree there will be some sympathy in the rest of the world for Japan's predicament."

US officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury declined to comment immediately about Tokyo's action.

Analysts doubted whether Kan's government was ready for another protracted battle similar to the 15-month yen selling spree earlier this decade given lingering questions about the effectiveness of the last campaign.

"The amount of intervention isn't likely to be as much as Japan was spending the last time it intervened, so it won't be enough to stop dollar/yen from falling. It is also unlikely that other countries will cooperate," said Junya Tanase, currency strategist at JP Morgan in Tokyo.

Noda would not say whether the authorities were buying dollars, but two traders said the Bank of Japan appeared to have bought dollars around 83 yen at the start of the action.

The Bank of Japan acts on behalf of the Ministry of Finance in currency intervention.

"We will take decisive steps if necessary, including intervention, while continuing to closely watch currency market moves from now on," Noda told reporters at a hastily arranged news conference.

The dollar had hit a 15-year-low at 82.87 yen earlier in the day but was at 85.12 yen by midday.

Will the yen stop rising?

Kan's government has been trying to talk down the yen as it kept moving away from the 90 yen per dollar level most exporters had assumed in their financial plans. Until Wednesday, however, it had stopped short of intervening, apparently worried that acting without Group of Seven partners would not achieve much.

Kan was re-elected ruling party leader on Tuesday, decisively fending off a challenge from powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa, an outspoken advocate of intervention.

"There were views in the market that Kan was more tolerant of a higher yen and the yen rose after he won the ruling party leadership vote yesterday," said Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

"The government probably wanted to stamp out those views. But the question is: Will the yen stop rising from here? It's not clear."

The yen had surged to its highest against the dollar since 1995, as low US interest rates have made the dollar cheap to borrow and swap for higher-yielding assets and as talk has resurfaced that the Fed might loosen its policy further.

The Japanese currency's rise has brought it closer and closer to its record peak of 79.75 per dollar set in 1995 and has weighed on the Tokyo stock market's Nikkei average, which climbed 1.8 percent on the day as news of the intervention spread.

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