Showing posts with label recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recovery. Show all posts

Monday, November 29, 2010

US Fed 'prepared' to act if recovery stalls

WASHINGTON – The US Federal Reserve avoided pulling the trigger on fresh stimulus spending at a top-level policy meeting, but said it was prepared to act if the tepid economic recovery cools further.

The bank's open market committee held interest rates at record lows in a bid to shore up what it called a "modest" recovery, but shied away from a new -- and controversial -- round of spending.

"The committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery," the Fed said.

During the depths of the recession the bank spent about one trillion dollars buying up long-term US debt and toxic mortgage products in an effort to lubricate blocked up financial markets.

That may have helped stave off a rerun of the Great Depression, but there are widespread concerns that the private sector is not ready to stand on its own.

With US growth projected to be an anemic 1.5 percent this year, many commentators have called on the Fed to once again open the sluice gates and let cash flow into the economy.

At its August meeting, the bank took the baby step of agreeing to keep spending at current levels by plowing the proceeds from investments into US bonds.

Since that meeting, a panel of top economists has declared the US recession over and a slew of data has pointed to a moderately better outlook, but that has not been enough to dampen concerns.

The Fed retained its bleak view of the health of the world's largest economy, making further action possible when the panel meets again in early November.

"(The Fed) statement effectively kicked the can six weeks down the road," said Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities.

The Fed's top policy panel said the pace of recovery had "slowed in recent months" while warning the pace of economic growth would be "modest in the near term."

It pointed to now-familiar problems that plague the economy: high unemployment, low consumer spending and a moribund housing sector. Full text of Fed statement

It also gave a thinly veiled warning about the risks of deflation, stating that inflation rates were "somewhat below" target levels.

"The Fed clearly stated current levels of inflation are too low, and that the aim of current policy would be to address the deficiency," according to Andrew Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Even with this bleak backdrop, Fed members again appeared to have tussled over when crisis measures are needed and if they would work.

Kansas Fed Representative Thomas Hoenig, seen as an inflation hawk, voted against the policies, arguing that loose monetary policy would create imbalances over time.

"The doves are ready now, while the hawks would need to see a significant deterioration in the outlook to sign off," said Stanley.

Tuesday's meeting was the policy-making panel's last before November's mid-term elections.

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Monday, October 25, 2010

Global economic recovery is slowing

BIZWORLD

PARIS – Global economic recovery is slowing faster than expected and extra stimulus from governments may be needed, the OECD warned on Thursday.

Growth in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies could slow to an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second half of the year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in an interim assessment.

"Recent high-frequency indicators point to a slowdown in the pace of recovery of the world economy that is somewhat more pronounced than previously anticipated," the OECD said.

But the report also said that such an evaluation was subject to "great uncertainty" and that it remained unclear if the slowdown reflected temporary factors or whether it signalled deeper constraints.

It said that if the trend were deemed to be temporary, governments should withdraw their monetary support "for a few months" while continuing to curb public spending.

But on the other hand, if the latest sluggishness proved to be longer lasting, governments could boost stimulus measures, for example by continuing central bank purchases of corporate debt and maintaining interest rates close to zero.

The report added that if public finances permitted, planned budget cuts could be delayed.

The OECD said in the months ahead consumer spending, the principal motor in many advanced economies, could be constrained by unemployment and falling housing prices.

In addition, "a weak economy and uncertainty in sovereign debt markets might also affect adversely the financial system and private demand growth."

But the OECD also noted that the global economy could take advantage of several strengths, in particular robust corporate profits, inventory levels that should not warrant "a renewed rundown of stocks" and stablised overall financial conditions in most industrialised countries.

In its country-specific forecasts, the OECD foresaw growth in the United States of 2.0 percent in the third quarter this year and 1.2 percent in the fourth.

Japan should experience growth of 0.6 percent in the third quarter and 0.7 percent in the fourth.

For the eurozone, based on an average of the three largest members, Germany , France and Italy , the comparable figures are 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent.

 

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