Showing posts with label Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Index. Show all posts

Friday, January 28, 2011

Market predicted to ebb this week

HCMC – Stock brokers hold a downbeat view over the local stock market this week, saying the market would suffer a mild decline as profit-taking pressure might increase at around the 460-point level. The VN-Index is expected to move within a narrow range between 445 and 465 points.

The market corrected in the last session of last week after three rising days in a row. Throughout the week, however, the VN-Index gained 7.55 points, or 1.67%, against the previous week to end at 459.26.

Closing the week, the number of advancers was still modest with 53 stocks rising compared to 189 others losing ground. Liquidity remained low, averaging out at 37.9 million shares worth VND975 billion per session, rising by 1.9% in volume but dropping by 3.4% in value.

APEC Securities Co. noted that large caps rallied sharply during the week due to high demands of foreign investors while penny stocks kept moving down.

“Although the U.S. market enjoyed another rising week, the local market stayed dull as investors were waiting for financial reports of listed firms in the third quarter. They were also pessimistic at declines of most small and medium caps last week,” APEC said.

APEC estimated that the market would not escape the narrow range between 445 and 465 points this week. “Investors should acquire stocks with good fundamentals if the VN-Index drops to below 450 points,” it suggested.

Vietnam International Securities Co. (VIS) said complicated developments on the world market were not strong enough to support investor sentiment last week. “Buyers only accepted low prices given lack of supporting news and cash flow signs. It is notable that trading volume is rather low recently, suggesting that supplies of cheap shares are running dry,” VIS said. 

Foreign participation, meanwhile, surged strongly against previous weeks and the investors were net buyers for around 17.8 million shares worth VND703 billion.

“Foreigners now play an important role in movement of the VN-Index and will help prevent a sharp downturn within the next few days,” VIS said.

HCMC Securities Corp. (HSC) said the VN-Index, nevertheless, gained some eight points last week and sentiment seems to have improved somewhat, helped by the very active buying by some foreigner investors. “The general feeling is that once support from this side subsides, prices might fall back again and therefore we see short-term players taking profit at levels above 460 points,”

“We do not expect sentiment to change dramatically over the coming week. A number of large caps will continue to do well, while the overall picture is likely to show little excitement,” HSC added.

The Hanoi market performed worse than its southern counterpart with three losing sessions. The HNX-Index lost 4.12 points, or 3.27%, from the week earlier to close at 121.69. The market’s liquidity improved slightly with the average daily volume of 30.2 million shares worth VND692 billion, increasing by 6.3% and 4.8% against the previous week respectively. VIS predicted the market would move flat again this week. LienVietBank,

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Monday, December 13, 2010

Brokers predict seesaw trading this week

HCMC – Securities brokers predicted the market would see saw in narrow range again this week with a VN-Index hovering between 445 to 460 points as investors would continue waiting for clearer information relating to Decree 13.

The market ended the previous week with three falling and two rising sessions while liquidity sharply tumbled on Wednesday and Friday. The VN-Index lost 7.87 points, or 1.72%, against the previous week to close at 449.71.

Although the global markets continued to stage positive developments, the local market was still impacted by bad information from the macro economy. Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) in September late last week was estimated to increase by 1.31% from August, taking the index to 6.46% in the first nine months of the year while gold and U.S. dollar deposit rates increased.

“The information will keep investors away from the playground this week. Meanwhile, they are worried that supply may far exceed demand as many enterprises will list on the bourse in the future while the cash flow has yet to improve,” said APEC Securities Co.

However, trading volume on the market improved strongly, averaging out at 46.7 million shares worth nearly VND1.2 trillion daily, increasing by 11% and 21.6% against the week earlier respectively. Closing the week, only 49 stocks gained grounds while up to 189 stocks ended with losses.

Foreign participation once again decreased but the investors remained net buyers for around 18.2 million shares worth VND759 billion during the week.

“They were still important support for the index and, for the long-term vision, seem to acquire more blue-chips on the market,” APEC said.

HCMC Securities Corp. (HSC) said the September index that came out in strong increase of 1.31% proved all commentators who had anticipated a much lower figure over the past weeks completely wrong. “Therefore, the effect on investor sentiment can only be felt on Monday and we could certainly get a backlash from the higher than expected figure. The final version of Decree 13 is indeed said to contain very little to excite the banking sector, so we should not expect too much of that either,” HSC said.

“Nevertheless, it looks like we could be coming to the end of what has been an extended period of bad news and fear for even more bad news. That means that most of the negative pressure has already been incorporated into last Friday’s share prices. We normally should expect some pressure in the short term, but with the low valuations that we are seeing in the market, it seems that downside risk has become rather limited,” the broker added.

The Hanoi market saw up to four falling sessions last week after gaining a modest ground on the first trading day. The HNX-Index dropped 3.22 points, or 2.42%, from the week earlier to 129.63. The market’s liquidity was higher with the average daily volume of 36.5 million shares worth VND894 billion, increasing by 4% and 3.7% against the week earlier respectively.

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Brokers predict seesaw trading this week

HCMC – Securities brokers predicted the market would see saw in narrow range again this week with a VN-Index hovering between 445 to 460 points as investors would continue waiting for clearer information relating to Decree 13.

The market ended the previous week with three falling and two rising sessions while liquidity sharply tumbled on Wednesday and Friday. The VN-Index lost 7.87 points, or 1.72%, against the previous week to close at 449.71.

Although the global markets continued to stage positive developments, the local market was still impacted by bad information from the macro economy. Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) in September late last week was estimated to increase by 1.31% from August, taking the index to 6.46% in the first nine months of the year while gold and U.S. dollar deposit rates increased.

“The information will keep investors away from the playground this week. Meanwhile, they are worried that supply may far exceed demand as many enterprises will list on the bourse in the future while the cash flow has yet to improve,” said APEC Securities Co.

However, trading volume on the market improved strongly, averaging out at 46.7 million shares worth nearly VND1.2 trillion daily, increasing by 11% and 21.6% against the week earlier respectively. Closing the week, only 49 stocks gained grounds while up to 189 stocks ended with losses.

Foreign participation once again decreased but the investors remained net buyers for around 18.2 million shares worth VND759 billion during the week.

“They were still important support for the index and, for the long-term vision, seem to acquire more blue-chips on the market,” APEC said.

HCMC Securities Corp. (HSC) said the September index that came out in strong increase of 1.31% proved all commentators who had anticipated a much lower figure over the past weeks completely wrong. “Therefore, the effect on investor sentiment can only be felt on Monday and we could certainly get a backlash from the higher than expected figure. The final version of Decree 13 is indeed said to contain very little to excite the banking sector, so we should not expect too much of that either,” HSC said.

“Nevertheless, it looks like we could be coming to the end of what has been an extended period of bad news and fear for even more bad news. That means that most of the negative pressure has already been incorporated into last Friday’s share prices. We normally should expect some pressure in the short term, but with the low valuations that we are seeing in the market, it seems that downside risk has become rather limited,” the broker added.

The Hanoi market saw up to four falling sessions last week after gaining a modest ground on the first trading day. The HNX-Index dropped 3.22 points, or 2.42%, from the week earlier to 129.63. The market’s liquidity was higher with the average daily volume of 36.5 million shares worth VND894 billion, increasing by 4% and 3.7% against the week earlier respectively.

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Monday, November 22, 2010

Stock market to slightly improve this week: brokers

HCMC – With two falling and three rising sessions, the VN-Index finished last week up 1.4% and stayed above 450 points. Given the strong rally last Friday, brokers expect that the market is going to have another short recovery.

In the first week of applying a longer trading time, liquidity of the southern market declined. The market’s average daily trading volume was 42 million shares worth VND1.07 trillion, falling 21% and 23% respectively from a week earlier.

However, the market’s liquidity on Friday suddenly improved as both trading volume and value increased by 30% to 49.8 million shares and VND1.28 trillion. Another positive sign in the session was blue-chips of VCB, HAG, HPG, and SSI made the biggest positive contribution to the VN-Index.

After the four earlier sessions moving in narrow range below 450 points, the VN-Index last Friday shot up by 8.06 points to 457.58.

Explaining the Friday rally, an expert of HCMC Securities Corp. (HSC) said there were several possible factors behind this, including speculation that the uncertainty about Circular 13 would come to an end and news that GDP is well on track to generate stronger-than-expected full-year growth of 6.7% or so.

“Neither piece of news was unexpected but at the same time investors who have been waiting for good news or at least hoping for an end to the recent uncertainty have certainly found it,” HSC said. The broker also said, “Given the strong level of bids at the close we suggest that next week may well see further gains, meaning that the market has already bottomed for now.”

Meanwhile, Beta Securities Co. said the market had yet to have any supporting news and capital flow was still restricted. “In our opinion, once the VN-Index breaks the resistance level of 470 points and the HNX-Index breaks the 140-points level, the market is seen cruising through the downward trend and entering a new bout of rallies,” the company said in its report. Therefore, Beta expects the VN-Index would slightly increase or move sideway this week.

In contrast to cautious local investor sentiment, foreign investors continued buying into shares last week as their net buying value was VND379 billion, up 45% from the previous week. The buying of blue-chips at low prices can make the third quarter financial reports of foreign institutions better, but it also helped keep the market from falling deeply, Vietnam International Securities Co. (VIS) said.

The broker commented that the 443-445 points area would witness strong buying, and the 465-470 points area would witness strong selling from short-term investors. Therefore, according to VIS, if there is no supporting news, the VN-Index would move between 445 and 467 points this week.

Similar to the southern bourse, Hanoi’s market also witnessed a strong increasing session last Friday as the index rose 4.45 points to 132.85. The level was also 1.3% higher than the previous week.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Construction price index fails to reflect market fluctuations

HA NOI — Construction firms are complaining that they are being put at a disadvantage by the Ministry of Construction because its quarterly price reports do not reflect monthly market movements.

The issue was raised during a seminar organised by the ministry this week.

Those at the meeting said the ministry should publish its research monthly so that firms could more accurately assess their costs and charges.

Lam Van Hoang, from the Ministry of Transport's Project Management Unit No2, said quotes were based on projected figures, which themselves were calculated on official price-fluctuation forecasts. Because of monthly market fluctuations, particularly during the 2004-08 period, construction firms say they have been losing out.

Wang Gui Jun, of Ha Noi-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation, said it was virtually meaningless to publish the construction price index on a quarterly basis.

The time between purchasing and the publication of the price index could be very significant, Wang said.

He added that the price index should protect the interest of contractors.

Ngo The Vinh, from the Institute of Construction Economy, said steel prices had risen from VND11-VND16 million ( (US$564-$820,512) per tonne in a 40-day period. Every two or three days the price of steel rose by VND200,000 to VND300,000 per tonne which had a major impact on construction, he said.

To make the index more effective, Tran Dang Luyen, from the Department of Construction Management at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, said the construction price index needed to be published monthly.

He also said the index should be applied to all 63 provinces and cities instead of 12 regions. — VNS

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Friday, October 29, 2010

Last-minute profit-taking weighs on VN-Index

Heavy sales in the final minutes of Sept. 10's session on the HCM Stock
Exchange dragged the VN-Index down to a close of 451.39 points, a
decline of 2.65 percent.


The volume of trades
continued to be modest at 52.5 million shares, totalling 1.3 trillion
VND (66.7 million USD), while Saigon Securities Inc (SSI) reclaimed the
place as the most active share, responsible for 2.27 million trades.


Blue chips did lose ground on Sept. 10. Masan Group (MSN) was one of
the few to escape the fall, closing unchanged at 49,000 VND. But Bao
Viet Holdings (BVH) plunged to its floor price, closing off 5 percent to
47,500 VND per share.

Among 26 gainers on the day, most were penny stocks.


Foreign investors contributed to the market correction by meagre buys
in HCM City, picking up a net of just 600,000 shares, worth 26.6 billion
VND (1.36 million USD).


On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index shed 3.74 percent to end the session at 131.15 points.


The value of trades once again exceeded that on the HCM City exchange,
reaching 1.37 trillion VND (70.2 million USD) on a volume of 57.8
million shares.


Foreign investors were net sellers Sept. 10 in Hanoi, offloading a net of 97,000, worth 2.69 billion VND.


The next session on September 13 on HCM Stock Exchange would see the
introduction of a lengthened period of continuous trading. This change
was expected to boost trades./.

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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Asia stocks hit 4-month high in cautious rise

stock
Photo: Reuters

HONG KONG - Asian stocks rose to a four-month high on Friday, some investors inspired by positive US economic data to pick out bargains, with the cautious shift toward risk reining in yen strength.

Leading European stocks fell 0.4 percent in early trade.

The yen's yield disadvantage has also been growing this week, following upside surprises in US and Australian economic figures, handing dealers an incentive to join any selloffs of the currency.

"At the end of the day, traders are still focusing on economic developments in the US and debt issues in Europe," said CMC Markets analyst David Taylor in Sydney.

"The key theme is that it is less likely the US will have a double-dip recession."

Overnight, US initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low. China on Friday posted stronger-than-expected import growth in August, indicating a possible rebound in domestic demand, and a 34.4 percent rise in exports year-on-year.

The Chinese data also supported currencies of major commodity exporters such as Australia, keeping the Aussie dollar on track for a third straight week of gains.

Still, risk taking has not become overwhelming by any stretch. Economists keep ratcheting down US economic forecasts, corporate executives sound cautious and some of Europe's banks may need more capital soon.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average closed 1.6 percent higher, with Fast Retailing and Canon Inc the biggest lifts to the index. The Nikkei is on its way to its biggest weekly increase since the week of July 11.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan edged up 0.1 percent after earlier hitting the highest since May 4, with the technology sector leading gains.

The index is up nearly 11 percent in the quarter, on track for the largest gain since the third quarter of 2009.

The US S&P 500 index overnight rose 0.5 percent and broke above its 100-day moving average, a medium-term obstacle, revealing its 200-day moving average only 1 percent away as the next significant barrier.

Spreads disfavor yen

The yen suffered from traders closing out of short-term bets on the currency and hastening its decline.

The US dollar rose 0.5 percent to 84.23 yen, pulling further from a 15-year low around 83.32 yen hit on Wednesday.

The US dollar index, which measures its trade-weighted value compared with six other major currencies, rose 0.2 percent, climbing above its 55-day moving average, a technical obstacle the index has struggled with in the last three weeks.

Investors betting on the yen have grown concerned about the moves in bond spreads that have gone against the Japanese currency. Overnight a lower-than-expected reading of US initial jobless claims pushed up Treasury yields.

Last month economists on average slashed their 2011 US economic growth forecasts by three tenths of a percent, the biggest single-month downward revision to year ahead predictions in two years, Thomson Reuters Datastream showed.

That has made investors lean heavily in the direction of negative economic news, so that a positive surprise causes them to scramble to cover their bets.

The spread of US 10-year Treasury yields over Japan has widened 6 basis points this week, the biggest weekly gain since July 2010. Australian 2-year yields have shot up 22 basis points above same maturity Japanese yields this week, the largest increase since March 2010.

"Of course this could prove to be a false break but we would note US yields appear to have been basing for a number of weeks now," Jonathan Cavenagh, strategist with Westpac in Sydney, said in a note.

"Hence if the yield spread continues to move in favor of the USD then USD/JPY is a good buy at current levels."

US crude oil futures jumped 1.3 percent to near $75.21 a barrel after a leak forced the shutdown of the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian oil to refineries in the Midwest.

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Thursday, October 14, 2010

Brokers: Market to maintain uptrend this week

Investors follow stock prices at Rong Viet Securities Co. in HCMC. Stock brokerages expect the market rally to extend this week after strong rises last week - Photo: Le Toan
HCMC – Local securities enterprises expect that the market would continue its uptrend this week after strong VN-Index rallies and high trading volumes last week.

APEC Securities Co. in its weekly comment said investors might be more excited after the National Day holiday with three rising sessions last week and the VN-Index gaining 29.61 points, or 6.9%, from the previous session to close at 458.75. Liquidity strongly improved with the average daily trading volume of 45.7 million shares worth VND1.2 trillion, increasing by 15.8% and 20% against the week earlier respectively.

“The VN-Index will have the supporting level of 430 points and resistance level of 475 points this week. We continue to advise investors to boost investment in steel, sugarcane, food and property stocks with good basic factors this week, especially in correction phases,” APEC said.

Vietnam International Securities Co. (VIS), meanwhile, noted active participation of foreigners during the week. They were net buyers to the tune of around four million shares worth VND222 billion.

Foreigners played an important role in the VN-Index rally last week as they boosted buying many large caps, making local investors feel more confident and demand outpace supply on the market. As a result, the gainers far outpaced the losers at 234 to 16 at the end of the week, the broker commented.

“As we have mentioned in earlier reports, the market needs a new cash flow to sustain a strong rally. Though exact information of a new strong cash flow from foreigners is not clear during the past time, we think that foreigners have brought about a cash flow into the local market, but it is not strong enough to maintain a long-term uptrend,” VIS said.

However, VIS believed that the cash flow would keep investors optimistic and improve liquidity on the market. “With the cash flow, the market may continue recovering its lost ground, while investors may use more financial leverage products and trading volume will be higher this week,” VIS added.

HCMC Securities Co. (HSC) after the last session of the week said the technical driven rally could only go so far and many stocks have already recovered 15% or more from the bottom. “Therefore, we can say that valuations have now gone from cheap to reasonable again and to drive us higher requires a change in the external environment,” it said.

“We are of course still waiting for positive developments concerning adjustments to Decree 13. And now that we have recovered over 40 points on the VN-Index, investors will start looking for some fundamental reasons to drive stock prices higher next week, either better macro news flow or a material change in supply-demand situation. The macro environment is unlikely to be the source of positive news, therefore our best hope lies with an improvement in the supply-demand on the market,” HSC said.

The Hanoi market also enjoyed strong rallies with the HNX-Index adding 13.38 points, or 11.31%, from the previous week to close at 131.66. The daily trading volume averaged at 37 million shares worth VND835 billion. The market is expected to continue improving this week.

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