Monday, November 22, 2010

Global investors still prefer Vietnam

HCMC - Global investors have again picked Vietnam as the number one emerging investment destination beyond Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) for the third year in a row since 2008 as indicated in a recent report by the UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

More than 520 global executives representing all major industries participated in a survey conducted from July to August this year to explore the changing outlook for businesses already operating in emerging markets or planning to expand into these markets.

The executives expressed in the “Great Expectations: Doing business in emerging markets” report the markets they think are representing the best opportunities and the primary rationale for operating.

Aside from the BRIC bloc, global investors ranked Vietnam above Indonesia, Mexico, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Nigeria, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates and Turkey when they were asked about the emerging markets in their main targets for new and/or increased investment over the next two years.

In the top 10 investment targets for 2010, Indonesia advanced to second from fourth in last year’s survey and Argentina to fourth from twelfth while Mexico stood unchanged. Malaysia slid to eighth spot from fifth and the UAE to eighth from second in 2009.

On the global scope, the executives selected China as the top market for investment with 20% of them opting for the world’s second-largest economy, followed by Vietnam with 19% and India with 18%.

The survey points out up to 76% of global investors see emerging markets as a source of new business growth, and these markets are also viewed generating new consumer demand for the global economy.

According to the report, 71% of the respondents agreed that emerging markets beyond the BRIC countries collectively offer an opportunity too big to ignore. As a result, companies are prioritizing a range of other countries alongside their well-established operations in the bloc.

Many global firms are increasingly familiar with emerging markets, as recognized in the survey that shows nearly half of the respondents have been operating in one or more emerging markets for at least a decade and two thirds have been there for six years or more.

Far more executives believe that the potential rewards far outstrip the risks within both the BRIC countries and other emerging markets. The findings show 52% of them expect growth prospects for their once-risky emerging markets business to be “significantly better” over the next two years.

The UK Business Secretary Vince Cable said in support of launching the new report in London last week that the balance of global economic power was shifting towards emerging markets.

Emerging markets magnetize not only big companies but also small and medium enterprises. One in every three SMEs polled plan to expand into one new emerging market over the next two years through joint ventures or partnerships with local companies.

The survey found local companies in emerging markets are sought after for partnerships and alliances. Despite a greater ease with the risks of new places, the need to tap into local knowledge and contacts quickly remains strong.

The UKTI notes by 2030, 93% of the world’s middle class will live in emerging markets and the 30 fastest growing cities will be in emerging markets in the 2008 -2025 period.

Late last year, PricewaterhouseCoopers released a study showing that Hanoi and HCMC would be the top two cities having the world’s highest average real GDP of 7% in 2008-2025 in the list of the top 30 fastest growing cities in terms of economic growth.

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Ministry seeks preferential funding for expressway

HCMC – The Ministry of Transport has asked the World Bank (WB) to consider increasing interest-free credit for the Danang-Quang Ngai expressway project to reduce risk of debt distress.

The US$1.5 billion road expressway has been discussed between Deputy Minister of Transport Ngo Thinh Duc and the WB’s task force. This is one of the major road projects in central Vietnam, according to a statement issued by the ministry.

Duc has urged the project management units and developer Vietnam Expressway Investment and Development Corp. (VEC) to complete the environment impact appraisal report on the project in line with the international donors’ requirements.

Duc has also told leaders of VEC, Project Management Unit 85 and Project Management Unit 1 to find a proper financing plan for the project. VEC is tasked with finalizing this plan for submission to the ministry this month. Based on this plan, the ministry will work with relevant agencies and international donors over the funding of the road project.

According to the ministry, the 140-kilometer road project has a low level of financial efficiency. So the ministry has suggested the WB increase the proportion of its International Development Association (IDA) financing for the project to mitigate risk. VEC plans to develop the expressway at a total cost of VND29.2 trillion, with US$576 million equivalent coming from the WB, or 38.4% of the total. JICA will provide US$725 million (48.3%) and the remaining US$200 million, or 13.3%, from Vietnam.

The project consists of a 131.5-kilometer expressway passing through Danang City and Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces, and a 8.5-kilometer road connecting to National Highway 1A.

The four-lane expressway is designed for vehicles to travel at a maximum speed of 120 kilometers per hour.

The expressway project is scheduled to get off the ground next year, and will be developed into two phases lasting four years.

* In a related development, the transport ministry sent a document to the Ministry of Planning and Investment to register another expressway, Nghi Son-Bai Vot. The 94.1-kilometer highway linking Nghi Son in Thanh Hoa Province and Bai Vot in Ha Tinh Province is part of the north-south expressway already approved by the Prime Minister.

Under a proposal by consultant Road and Bridge Engineering Consultants JSC, the freeway will have four to six lanes for vehicles to run at 120 kilometers per hour. This project needs a total of some VND20 trillion and is scheduled for building in 2011-2014 period.

Vietnam needs US$16 billion for traffic infrastructure projects a year, but it can manage only half of it on its own. At a recent Consultative Group meeting, international donors said weak infrastructure is one of the biggest barriers to foreign investment in the country.

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Stock market to slightly improve this week: brokers

HCMC – With two falling and three rising sessions, the VN-Index finished last week up 1.4% and stayed above 450 points. Given the strong rally last Friday, brokers expect that the market is going to have another short recovery.

In the first week of applying a longer trading time, liquidity of the southern market declined. The market’s average daily trading volume was 42 million shares worth VND1.07 trillion, falling 21% and 23% respectively from a week earlier.

However, the market’s liquidity on Friday suddenly improved as both trading volume and value increased by 30% to 49.8 million shares and VND1.28 trillion. Another positive sign in the session was blue-chips of VCB, HAG, HPG, and SSI made the biggest positive contribution to the VN-Index.

After the four earlier sessions moving in narrow range below 450 points, the VN-Index last Friday shot up by 8.06 points to 457.58.

Explaining the Friday rally, an expert of HCMC Securities Corp. (HSC) said there were several possible factors behind this, including speculation that the uncertainty about Circular 13 would come to an end and news that GDP is well on track to generate stronger-than-expected full-year growth of 6.7% or so.

“Neither piece of news was unexpected but at the same time investors who have been waiting for good news or at least hoping for an end to the recent uncertainty have certainly found it,” HSC said. The broker also said, “Given the strong level of bids at the close we suggest that next week may well see further gains, meaning that the market has already bottomed for now.”

Meanwhile, Beta Securities Co. said the market had yet to have any supporting news and capital flow was still restricted. “In our opinion, once the VN-Index breaks the resistance level of 470 points and the HNX-Index breaks the 140-points level, the market is seen cruising through the downward trend and entering a new bout of rallies,” the company said in its report. Therefore, Beta expects the VN-Index would slightly increase or move sideway this week.

In contrast to cautious local investor sentiment, foreign investors continued buying into shares last week as their net buying value was VND379 billion, up 45% from the previous week. The buying of blue-chips at low prices can make the third quarter financial reports of foreign institutions better, but it also helped keep the market from falling deeply, Vietnam International Securities Co. (VIS) said.

The broker commented that the 443-445 points area would witness strong buying, and the 465-470 points area would witness strong selling from short-term investors. Therefore, according to VIS, if there is no supporting news, the VN-Index would move between 445 and 467 points this week.

Similar to the southern bourse, Hanoi’s market also witnessed a strong increasing session last Friday as the index rose 4.45 points to 132.85. The level was also 1.3% higher than the previous week.

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Hong Kong joins NY, London as top finance center

HONG KONG - Hong Kong has joined London and New York among the world's top financial centers, with other Asian cities including Shanghai and Seoul also moving up the ranks, a survey said Monday.

Hong Kong was third behind New York and first-placed London in the Global Financial Centers Index, which ranks 75 financial hubs based on surveys of professionals and criteria including business environment, market access and infrastructure.

"There remains no significant difference between London and New York (in the ratings). Respondents continue to believe that these centers work together for mutual benefit," according to the twice-annual report produced by London-based think tank Z/Yen Group.

"Hong Kong has joined London and New York as a genuinely global financial center. Singapore may well join this trio soon."

Singapore placed fourth in the top 10 followed by Tokyo, Shanghai, Chicago, Zurich, Geneva and Sydney.

"The top four centers control a large proportion of financial transactions (over 70 percent of equity trading)...(and) are likely to remain powerful financial centers for the foreseeable future," the report said.

Asia "continues to exhibit enhanced competitiveness" with Shanghai breaking into the top 10 and Seoul cracking the top 25, the report said.

Respondents said the five finance centers "likely to become more significant in the next few years" are the southern Chinese industrial city of Shenzhen, Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul, and Beijing.

Offshore finance centers such as the Cayman Islands and Malta and debt-laden Dubai had lost ground since the global financial crisis, the report said.

The survey polled 1,876 finance industry professionals.

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Growing Asian middle class fuels theme park boom

SINGAPORE - When Singapore first announced it was building a Universal Studios theme park, skeptics wondered if the complex would draw enough crowds to be commercially viable.

But just six months after opening, Universal Studios Singapore has already welcomed more than one million visitors, and other countries in Asia are building even bigger theme parks.

Asia has become the new frontier for large-scale outdoor entertainment complexes thanks to growing affluence in large emerging economies like China, India and Indonesia, and cheaper air travel.

"The industry is moving to Asia," said Christian Aaen, Asian regional director of research firm AECOM Economics, which specializes in entertainment and leisure industry analysis.

"With key fundamentals in place such as the growing middle class and incomes in Asia as well as demand for entertainment and leisure time, this is the perfect product for tourism and economic development," he told AFP.

Tokyo Disneyland and Disney Sea, the Universal Studios park in Osaka and South Korea's homegrown Everland ranked among the world's top 10 theme parks in terms of visitors last year, according to industry consultancy Themed Entertainment Association (TEA).

Encouraged by Asia's promise, Universal Studios signed a deal in January to build its largest theme park in the world in South Korea at a cost of around US$2.67 billion.

When completed in 2014, the resort will be bigger than Universal Studios' four other parks in Hollywood, Florida, Osaka and Singapore combined.

Disneyland has not fared well in Hong Kong -- with a 70 million Hong Kong dollar ($9 million) loss last year, according to the South China Morning Post -- but it is going ahead with a new franchise in Shanghai, with construction expected to start in November.

Denmark's Legoland is setting up its first Asian branch in Malaysia's Johore state close to Singapore, hiring builders to use the famous little plastic bricks to replicate national and state landmarks.

A recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report said the region's middle class was growing at an exponential rate and poised to become the world's single biggest group of consumers.

In 2008, some 1.9 billion people were broadly classified by the ADB as part of the middle class in Asian developing countries, more than triple the group's size of 565 million in 1990.

China in particular saw its middle class boom, with statistics showing the share of the Chinese population with daily incomes of six to ten dollars surging from 4.8 to 25.5 percent between 1995-2007.

In India, people in that income bracket increased from about 29 percent in 1993-94 to 38 percent in 2004-05, the ADB report showed.

Wealthy Singapore, which has only five million people, is a major beneficiary of Asia's increasingly mobile middle class families.

Nearly 1.1 million tourists entered Singapore in July -- a record high, thanks in part to Universal Studios -- with Indonesia, China, Malaysia and India in the top five countries of origin along with Australia.

"As developing Asia's people secure their middle-class status, its emerging consumers are very much expected to become the next global consumers and assume the traditional role of the US and European middle classes," the ADB said.

AECOM's Aaen said the opening of Universal Studios in Singapore "marked the beginning of the new decade where Asia will dominate and remain the primary region for future growth of the industry".

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Central bank eyes foreign currency in property deals

The State Bank of Vietnam's branch in HCMC this week will inspect the use of foreign currencies in real estate transactions in the locality.

Nguyen Hoang Minh, deputy director of the branch, said the SBV's move was aimed not only to ensure the serious implementation of Vietnamese laws but also to protect real estate buyers from losses caused by forex fluctuations.

The branch has already prepared a list of real estate companies eligible for inspection to be carried out without any advance notification.

This week, inspections will focus on real-estate companies allegedly using the US dollar in their business.

The SBV hopes to check two or three real estate companies a week.

Real estate owners will be penalised at a level heavier than current fines if any violation is discovered, according to Minh.

According to Vietnam's current laws, all transactions and payments in the country must not be implemented in foreign currencies, except those that are carried out with credit organisations, and payment forms that require intermediaries.

However, the use of foreign currencies including the US dollars was still very popular in big cities, especially in real estate transactions, Minh said.

Most transactions related to high-grade properties include villas or luxurious apartments now using foreign currencies, particularly the greenback, according to Bui Tien Thang, deputy director of the Sai Gon Commercial Real Estate Joint Stock Company (Sacomreal).

There were many reasons that made real estate owners prefer the greenback to the domestic currency (Vietnamese dong), Thang said.

Most foreign investors want to be paid in US dollars because such a payment form is familiar to them.

In addition, their partners often use the US dollar as they have to contribute their capital to the projects.

As a result, the price of finished real estate products has to be established in the US dollar, which facilitates payments among the involved sides.

Thang, however, said that a main reason that the greenback was used in real estate payments was that project owners would not have to suffer losses as the Vietnamese dong will likely be devalued.

Many individual investors, most of them rent their houses, have also wanted to fix their rental charges in US dollar, but they then received dong. With this method, they expected to keep their capital intact, he said.

The current penalty of VND30 million maximum applied to violators is too low, which allowed investors to continue using foreign currencies.

An official of the HCMC Real Estate Association also admitted that the association suggested that real estate companies should not use the foreign currency in establishing product prices. However, the latter insisted on their option of the US dollar in payments.

Over the past years, authorised agencies have checked and penalised only consumer goods traders who used the foreign currency in their transactions.

 

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More garment businesses expand scale

A dozen of garment and textile enterprises, mostly in northern region,
have been investing in expanding production since 2009 in a trend that
is forecast to be continued, said experts from the Vietnam Garment and
Textile Group (Vinatex).


Analysing the positive trend, Nguyen Van Thoi, General Director of the
Thai Nguyen Investment and Trade Company (TNG), said the world’s garment
and textile suppliers are shifting their attention from China to
Vietnam and in the country, the market is moving from the south to the
north due to more labour competitiveness.


In addition, customers
now tend to directly connect to suppliers instead of through
intermediaries such as international contractors and retail groups, thus
creating opportunities for development for Vietnamese garment firms,
including TNG.


Recently, TNG invested 210 billion VND (11 million
USD) in building its fourth plant, which is scheduled to be put into
operation in the first quarter of 2011, bringing the company’s total
sewing chains to 172, making it one of the country’s leading garment
suppliers.


The TNG leader said that the investment was based on
long-term and stable commitments and orders from its customers,
including those from the US and Canada like Columbia ,
Sportswear, The Children’s Place and Capital.


After this project,
TNG plans to invest further in its equipment with the aim of taking on
more steps of international garment orders by 2015, Thoi said.


Earlier,
the Nha Be Garment Joint Stock Corporation, which has 22 garment
factories and eight trading companies, invested trillions of VND in
nearly 10 projects despite fluctuation in the market. Two of them, with a
combined investment capital of over 200 billion VND (over 10 million
USD) will become operational late this month.


The new investment
is expected to raise the company’s export turnover by between 20-25
percent this year, said Duong Thi Ngoc Dung, President of the Board of
Directors of Nha Be.


According to experts, increasing investment
in expand production is necessary at a time when Vietnam still has
many advantages in sub-contracting. However, for sustainable
development, enterprises should invest in supporting industries like
materials processing, textile and dying in order to switch from
sub-contracting to selling products of their owned designs.


Garment
and textile have been Vietnam ’s leading export items with turnover
hitting nearly 10 billion USD a year for the past two years.


In
the first eight months of the year, the garment and textile sector
earned almost 6.9 billion USD from exports, a 17.8 percent increase over
the same period last year and is expected to earn 10.5 billion USD for
the whole year./.

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